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List of figures
List of tables
Preface
Language and measures
Acknowledgements
Permissions
Part 1: 環境危機の「よく聞くお話」は本当か？(The Litany)
1 世の中、よくなってきているのだ(Things are getting better)
定番のお話(The Litany)
ものごとは改善している - が十分によくはない(Things are better - but not necessarily good)
誇張とよいマネジメント(Exaggeration and good management)
大事なことはトレンドである(Fundamentals: trends)
グローバルトレンドで判断する(Fundamentals: global trends)
長期トレンドと短期のリバウンド(Fundamentals: long-term trends)
なぜそれが重要なのか？(Fundamentals: how is it important?)
人間のニーズこそ核心となる(Fundamentals: people)
ワールドウォッチ研究所の主張(Reality: Worldwatch Institute)
地球環境の現実と神話(Reality versus myths)
WWF(世界自然保護基金)の宣言(Reality: World Wide Fund for Nature
グリーンピースの戦略(Reality: Greenpeace)
まちがったダメな統計と経済学(Reality: wrong bad statistics and economics)
水は不足しているか(Reality: water problems)
ピメンテルと世界の健康 その一(Reality: Pimentel and global health I)
ピメンテルと世界の健康 その二(Reality: Pimentel and global health II)
レトリックとダメな予想(Reality versus rhetoric and poor predictions)
現実はどうか？(Reality)
現実と道徳(Reality and morality)
2 なぜ悪いニュースばかり流されるのか？(Why do we hear so much bad news?)
研究と偏り(Research)
ファイル棚とデータマッサージ(The file drawer and data massage)
団体の利害関係(Organizations)
メディアの影響(The media)
歪んだ現実：散発的だけれど予想がつく(Lopsided reality: sporadic but predictable)
歪んだ現実：悪いニュースがニュース(Lopsided reality: bad news)
歪んだ現実：対立と罪悪感のパターン(Lopsided reality: conflict and guilt)
その帰結(The consequences)
Part II: 人間の福祉はどんな状態か？(Human welfare)
3 人類の福祉を計る(Measuring human welfare)
地上には何人いるのか？(How many people on earth?)
人口構成の変化(The changing demographics)
人口過剰？(Overpopulation)
4 期待寿命と健康(Life expectancy and health)
期待寿命(Life expectancy)
発展途上国の期待寿命(Life expectancy in the developing world)
乳児死亡率の低下(Infant mortality)
制圧された病気たち(Illness)
結論(Conclusion)
5 食糧と飢え(Food and hunger)
マルサスと「永遠に続く飢餓」説(Malthus and everlasting hunger)
かつてないほど食糧は増えている(More food than ever)
かつてないほど値段は下がっている(Lower prices than ever)
緑の革命(The Green Revolution)
相対的な改善？絶対的な改善？(Relative or absolute improvement?)
アフリカの実態(Regional distribution: Africa)
中国の実態(Regional distribution: China)
結論(Conclusion)
インフレ調整済みGDPは豊かさの指標として適当か？(Is inflation-adjusted GDP a reasonable measure of wealth?)
6 かつてない繁栄(Prosperity)
貧困と分配(Poverty and distribution)
貧富の差は拡大しているか？(Ever greater inequality?)
成長危機の真の原因(Poorer still?)
増えた消費財(More cunsumer goods)
教育水準の向上(More education)
増えた余暇(More leisure time)
治安の向上(More safety and security)
少なくなった災害と事故(Fewer catastrophes and accidents)
7 Conclusion to Part II: かつてない人類の繁栄(unprecedented human prosperity)
Part III: 人類の繁栄は維持できるのか？(Can human prosperity continue?)
8 ぼくたちは未来を食いつぶして、現在の繁栄を維持しているのか？(Are we living on borrowed time?)
資源 - 福祉の基盤(Resources - the foundation for welfare)
9 食べ物は足りているか？(Will we have enough food?)
少なくとも一人あたり穀物は減少しているが(At least grain per capita is declining)
生産性低下は心配すべきか？(Declining productivity)
収量の限界？(Limits to yields?)
バイオマス(緑の物質)(Biomass)
ふつうの農民はどうか？(What about ordinary peasants?)
まだ収量の高成長が必要なのか？(Do we need the high growth?)
穀物備蓄が減っている！(Grain stocks are dropping!)
中国はどうか？(What about China?)
土壌流出は心配か？(Should we worry about erosion?)
魚はどうか？(What about fish?)
結論(Conclusion)
10 森林はなくなりかけているのか？(Forests - are we losing them?)
森林と歴史(Forests and history)
森林破壊の一般的な見解(Deforestation: general view)
森林はどれだけ破壊されたか？(Deforestation: how much?)
どれだけの森林があればいいのか？(How much forest?)
結論(Conclusion)
11 エネルギーは枯渇するか？(Energy)
エネルギー上に築かれた文明(We are a civilization built on energy)
このままやっていけるだけのエネルギーはあるか？(Do we have enough energy to go on?)
石油危機とは何だったのか？(The oil crisis)
石油はどれだけ残っているのか？(How much oil left?)
楽観論者と悲観論者(Optimists and pessimists arguing)
使える石油はかつてなく多い(Ever more oil available)
その他の化石エネルギー源(Other fossil energy sources)
原子力エネルギー(Nuclear energy)
再生可能エネルギー(Renewable energy)
太陽光エネルギー(Solar energy)
風力エネルギー(Wind energy)
エネルギー貯蔵(Storage and mobile consumption)
結論(Conclusion)
12 エネルギー以外の資源(Non-energy resources)
悲観論者は資源が枯渇するほうに賭け-そして負けた(The pessimists bet on resources running out and lost)
下落する価格(Falling prices)
セメント(Cement)
アルミニウム(Aluminum)
鉄(Iron)
銅(Copper)
金と銀(Gold and silver)
窒素、リン、カリウム(Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium)
亜鉛(Zinc)
その他の資源(Other resources)
なぜ資源が増えたりするのか？(Why do we have ever more resources?)
結論(Conclusion)
13 水は十分にある(Water)
水は世界にどれだけあるのか？(How much water in the world?)
三つの中心的な問題(The three central problems)
水が足りない？(Not enough water?)
将来はもっと悪化する？(Will it get worse in the future?)
水をめぐる紛争が激しくなる？(Will we see increased conflict?)
結論(Conclusion)
14 Conclusion to Part III: 繁栄は続く(continued prosperity)
Part IV: 公害は人間の繁栄をダメにするか？(Pollution: does it undercut human prosperity?)
15 大気汚染(Air pollution)
昔の大気汚染(Air pollution in times past)
何が危険なのか？(What is dangerous?)
微粒子(粒子状物質)(Particles)
鉛(Lead)
二酸化硫黄(SO2)
オゾン(Ozone)
窒素酸化物(NOx)
一酸化炭素(CO)
発展途上国の所得と汚染の関係(And the developing world? Both growth and environment)
結論(Conclusion)
16 酸性雨で森は死んでいるか？(Acid rain and forest death)
17 屋内の空気汚染のほうが深刻(Indoor air pollution)
発展途上国の屋内の空気汚染(Indoor air pollution in the developing world)
先進国における屋内の空気汚染(Indoor air pollution in the developed world)
18 アレルギーとぜん息(Allergies and asthma)
19 水質汚染(Water pollution)
海の石油汚染(Oil pollution in the oceans)
ペルシャ湾の石油(Oil in the Gulf)
エクソン・バルディーズは相変わらず大惨事なのか？(Exxon Valdez: still a catastrophe?)
沿岸の海水汚染(Pollution in coastal waters)
沿岸水の窒息(Suffocation in coastal waters)
肥料による健康への影響(Health effects from fertilizer)
河川の汚染(Pollution in rivers)
20 廃棄物の捨て場はないのか？(Waste: running out of space?)
21 Conclusion to Part IV: 公害の負担は減りつつある(the pollution burden has diminished)
Part V: 明日の問題(Tomorrow's problems)
22 化学物質がこわい(Our chemical fears)
ガンの死亡率(Cancer: death)
ガンの発生率(Cancer: incidence)
「八人に一人」と他の生涯リスク(1-in-8 and other lifetime risk analysis)
農薬がこわい(The fear of pesticides)
リスク分析によって閾値を定める(Establishing thresholds through risk analysis)
農薬とガン(Pesticides and cancer)
動物実験におけるガン(Cancer in animal experiments)
天然農薬と合成農薬(Natural and synthetic pesticides)
合成卵胞ホルモン(環境ホルモン)(Synthetic estrogens)
合成卵胞ホルモンで精子は劣化したか？(Synthetic estrogens: a fall in sperm quality)
有機農法の農民たち(Organic farmers)
合成卵胞ホルモンの「カクテル効果」(Synthetic estrogens: the "cocktail" effect)
合成卵胞ホルモンと乳ガン(Synthetic estrogens: breast cancer)
合成卵胞ホルモンは本当に心配すべきか？(Synthetic estrogens: should we worry?)
Conclusion: 農薬を使うべきか？(should we use pesticides?)
23 生物多様性の問題(Biodiversity)
生物の種は全部でどのくらいあるのか？(How many species are there?)
生物多様性は本当に大事なのか？(Is biodiversity important?)
どれくらいの種が絶滅しているのか？(How many go extinct?)
四万種という主張(The claim of 40,000 species)
モデルによる裏付け(A model backup)
ぼくたちは何を失うのか？(What do we lose?)
モデルと現実(Models and reality)
生物学者の反応(The biologists' reaction)
データをチェックしよう(Check the data)
義務を放棄する生物学者(The biologists' response)
Conclusion: 絶滅を派手に誇張したらどうなるのか？(what are the consequences of seriously overstating the extinctions?)
24 地球温暖化(Global warming)
温室効果の基礎(The basic greenhouse effect)
長期の気候の動き(The long-term development of the climate)
一八五六-二一〇〇年の気候(The climate, 1856-2100)
二酸化炭素は気温にどれくらい影響するのか？(How much does CO2 affect the temperature?)
微粒子の冷却効果(How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Particles)
水蒸気フィードバック(How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Water vapor)
雲のフィードバック(How much does CO2 affect the temperature? Clouds)
オゾンホール(The ozone hole)
他に原因はないのか？(Are there other causes?)
シナリオは現実的なのか？(Are the scenarios realistic?)
四〇の新シナリオ(Are the scenarios realistic? The 40 new scenarios)
農業への影響(Consequences: agriculture)
海面上昇(Consequences: sea level rise)
人類の健康(Consequences: human health)
異常気象(Consequences: extreme weather)
現在と未来の気候(Consequences: present and future weather)
温暖化のコスト(The cost of warming)
二酸化炭素削減のコスト(The cost of cutting CO2)
では、どうすればいいのか？(Then what should we do?)
二重の賭け：環境を改善しておまけに儲ける？(The double dividend: improve the environment and make money?)
反対論(1)二酸化炭素を削減して儲けよう(Objections: cut CO2 and make money)
反対論(2)未来のお値段(Objections: the price of the future)
反対論(3)大災厄がこわい(Objections: the fear of catastrophe)
まとめ(Summing up)
どんな未来社会を好むのか(More than meets the eye)
Conclusion: 怪談としっかりした政策(scares and sound policy)
Part VI: 世界の本当の状態(The Real State of the World)
25 窮地なのか、進歩なのか？(Predicament or progress?)
定番話という壮大な寓話(The Great Fable of the Litany)
世界の本当の状態(The Real State of the World)
それなのにもっと心配するぼくたち(Yet we worry ever more)
優先順位の設定とリスク(Setting priorities and risks)
リスクの重みづけ(Weighing risks)
定番話のコスト(The costs of the Litany)
遺伝子組み換え食品：定番話の総集編(Genetically modified foods - the encapsulation of the Litany)
「慎重なる回避」原理(予防原則)の問題点(Caution when invoking the principle)
繁栄は続くのだ(Continued progress)
注(Notes)
(Bibliography)
(Index)
What kind of state is the world really in?
Optimists proclaim the end of history with the best of all possible worlds at hand, whereas pessimists see a world in decline and find doomsday lurking around the corner. Getting the state of the world right is important because it defines humanity's problems and shows us where our actions are most needed. At the same time, it is also a scorecard for our ablilities, and is this a world we want to leave for our children?
This book is the work of a skeptical environmentalist. Environmentalist, because I - like most others - care for our Earth and care for the future health and wellbeing of its succeeding generations. Skeptical, because I care enough to want us not just to act on the myths of both optimists and pessimists. Instead, we need to use the best available information to join others in the common goal of making a better tomorrow.
Thus, this book attempts to measure the real state of the world. Of course, it is not possible to write a book (or even lots and lots of books for that matter) which measures the entire state of the world. Not is this my intention. Instead, I wish to gauge the most important characteristics of our state of the world - the fundamentals. And these should be assessed not on myths but on the best available facts. Hence, the real state of the world.
The Litany
The subtitle of my book is a play on the world's best-known book on the environment. The State of the World. This has been published every year since 1984 by the Worldwatch Institute and its leader Lester Brown, and it has sold more than a million copies. The series attempts to identify the world's most significant challenges professionally and veraciously. Unfortunately, as we shall see, it is frequently unable to live up to its objectives. In many ways, though, The State of the World is one of the best-researched and academically most ambitious environmental policy publications, and therefore it is also an essential participant in the discussion on the State of the World.
On a higher level this book plays to our general understanding of the environment: the Litany of our ever deteriorating environment. This is the view of the environment that is shaped by the images and messages that confront us each day on television, in the newspapers, in political statements and in conversations at work and at the kitchen table. This is why Time magazine can start off an article in 2000, stating as entirely obvious how "everyone knows the planet is in bad shape."
Even children are told the Litany, here from Oxford University Press Young Oxford Books: "The balance of nature is delicate but essential for life. Humans have upset that balance, stripping the land of its green cover, choking the air, and poisoning the seas.
Equally, another Time article tells us how "for more than 40 years, earth has been sending out distress signals" but while "we've staged a procession of Earth Days . . . the decline of Earth's ecosystems has continued unabated. The April 2001 Global Environment Supplement from New Scientist talks about the impending "catastrophe" and how we risk consigning "humanity to the dustbin of evolutionary history." Our impact is summarized with the headline "Self-destruct";
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"Life expectancy"を「平均寿命」と訳さず、敢えて「期待寿命」と訳す意味は何だろう？